|
Along with this forecast, an analysis by the International Programs
Center at the U.S. Census Bureau points to another factoid, Robert
Bernstein of the Bureau's Public Information Center advised LiveScience.
Mark this on your calendar: Some six years from now, on Oct. 18,
2012 at 4:36 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time, the Earth will be home
to 7 billion folks.
These are estimates, of course, but clear trends emerge from the
data behind them.
A report issued by the Bureau in March 2004 noted that world population
hit the 6-billion mark in June 1999. "This figure is over 3.5
times the size of the Earth's population at the beginning of the
20th century and roughly double its size in 1960," the study
explained.
Even more striking is that the time required for the global population
to grow from 5 billion to 6 billion—just a dozen years—was
shorter than the interval between any of the previous billions.
On average, 4.4 people are born every second.
The population on Earth today is nearly four times the number in
1900 [graph]. Behind that phenomenal global increase is a vast gulf
in birth and death rates among the world's countries. But according
to population experts, this gulf is not a simple divide that perpetuates
the status quo among the have and have-not nations.
Birth dearth
"What is worrisome about this demographic divide is not the
differences among nations' population growth rates, but the disparities
associated with these trends ... disparities in living standards,
health, and economic prospects," explained Mary Kent, co-author
along with Carl Haub, of a Population Reference Bureau report issued
last month titled "Global Demographic Divide."
Kent, editor of the Population Bulletin, and Haub, a senior demographer
at the Population Reference Bureau, reported that news of declining
population in Europe fueled concern about a global "birth dearth,"
but there is continuing population growth in developing countries.
The question, they asked, is which demographic trend is the world
facing?
"The reality is that both trends are occurring," Haub
said. "The dramatic fertility decline during the 20th century
coincided with improved health, access to family planning, economic
development, and urbanization."
Kent and Haub also reported that most countries will experience
population growth through 2050, as the world adds a projected 3
billion more people to the total.
Remarkably, despite the many new developments over the past 50 years,
one fact looks very much the same, explained Kent and Haub: Populations
are growing most rapidly where such growth can be afforded the least—an
observation that has changed little over time, they said.
|
